FOREX Market Technical Analysis as of October 14, 2025

 
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis as of October 14, 2025

The EUR/USD pair remains pressured by growing global risks and rising inflation in Germany, creating a mixed fundamental outlook for the euro ahead of the Fed’s policy announcements.

Possible technical scenarios:

As evidenced by the daily chart, EUR/USD continues to move within a downtrend formed between 1.1494 and 1.1788. From the current level, the price still has room to decline toward 1.1494. That being said, the downward movement may include short-term pullbacks toward the resistance of the descending channel.

EURUSD_D1

Fundamental drivers of volatility:

Global market sentiment continues to worsen as the trade conflict between the US and China intensifies. The introduction of new reciprocal tariffs on maritime shipping has amplified investor concerns about a slowdown in global trade, traditionally boosting demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Consequently, the euro remains under pressure amid weaker risk appetite. At the same time, Germany’s inflation data confirmed that consumer prices accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year in September, matching preliminary estimates and briefly triggering volatility in the euro.
However, sluggish economic expectations and persistent uncertainty in Germany’s industrial sector make an ECB rate hike unlikely. Thus, the inflation uptick failed to provide lasting support for the euro.
That said, anticipation of remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell is adding pressure to the EUR/USD pair. Investors are weighing the chances of two consecutive rate cuts at upcoming meetings, which somewhat limits the dollar’s potential for further strengthening.
Still, the overall balance of risks favors the continuation of bearish sentiment for the pair.

Intraday technical picture:

The 4H EUR/USD chart shows that a double-bottom reversal pattern has formed within a descending channel, with the neckline located at 1.1627, which is marked with a dotted line. A confirmed breakout of this pattern could signal a short-term recovery toward trend resistance. However, even in that case, a subsequent decline toward horizontal support at 1.1494 remains possible.

EURUSD_H4

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis as of October 14, 2025

The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure against the backdrop of signs of a cooling UK labor market and the moderate strengthening of the US dollar.

Possible technical scenarios:

Judging by the unfolding scenario on the daily chart, GBP/USD continues to move lower, reaching the midpoint of the 1.3147–1.3436 range, where the pair still has enough room to travel to solid support.

GBPUSD_D1

Fundamental drivers of volatility:

The British pound weakened against major currencies following the release of UK labor market data showing unemployment rising to 4.8% and employment growth slowing to 91,000. The slowdown in hiring, along with wage growth easing to 4.7% which is the lowest figure since May 2022, strengthened expectations that the Bank of England will continue its rate-cutting cycle to support the economy. These figures confirmed a cooling in business activity and weighed on the pound amid mounting concerns about slowing domestic demand.
Aside from that, dovish rhetoric from Bank of England officials continues to pressure the currency. Monetary Policy Committee members, including Megan Greene, have explicitly pointed to the need for further policy easing, emphasizing that current conditions remain overly restrictive. Markets now await upcoming speeches by Bank of England Governors Andrew Bailey and Alan Taylor, which are expected to reaffirm the regulator’s readiness to provide additional support should the data weaken further.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is finding support as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing uncertainty in US-China trade relations. Combined, the weak UK macroeconomic backdrop and a moderately strong dollar sustain the prevailing bearish sentiment for the GBP/USD pair.

Intraday technical picture:

As we can see on the 4H chart, the pair continues its steady decline within the 1.3147–1.3436 sideways range, leaving room for a move toward the lower boundary.

GBPUSD_H4

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis as of October 14, 2025

The Japanese yen gained short-term support amid renewed concerns about foreign exchange intervention, though political uncertainty and stabilizing global risks continue to limit its potential for further strengthening.

Possible technical scenarios:

Judging from the current look of things on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair has consolidated above the 151.53 support level. If this level holds, the next upside target lies at the 153.19 resistance mark.

USDJPY_D1

Fundamental drivers of volatility:

The yen is posting moderate gains against the US dollar following comments from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, who emphasized the importance of currency market stability and the inadmissibility of “one-sided, rapid moves.” These statements fueled speculation about potential government intervention, temporarily increasing demand for the yen.
Another supportive factor remains expectations that the Bank of Japan may deliver another rate hike this year amid steady inflation. However, domestic political turbulence—the collapse of the LDP–Komeito coalition and uncertainty surrounding the confirmation of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—poses challenges to further monetary tightening.
At the same time, the US dollar is maintaining moderate strength, supported by a stable market environment and anticipation of remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Nonetheless, expectations of additional rate cuts in the US continue to cap the dollar’s upside potential.
Overall, the balance of factors for USD/JPY remains mixed: markets are reacting cautiously to the prospect of intervention by Japanese authorities, while political instability and improving global sentiment are preventing the yen from strengthening significantly. Until clearer signals emerge from the Bank of Japan or the Federal Reserve, the pair is likely to remain rangebound.

Intraday technical picture:

According to the 4H USD/JPY chart, the pair has rebounded from support at 151.53, leaving sufficient room for a potential move toward resistance at 153.19.

USDJPY_H4

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis as of October 14, 2025

The USD/CAD pair is gaining strength amid growing demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, driven by renewed trade risks and declining oil prices that continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar.

Possible technical scenarios:

Given the current situation on the daily chart, USD/CAD has consolidated above 1.4013, leaving room for an upward move toward the resistance level at 1.4108. A breakout above this level could open the way to the next target at 1.4179.

USDCAD _D1

Fundamental drivers of volatility:

The US dollar continues to advance against the Canadian dollar, reaching its highest levels in six months. Renewed trade tensions between the US and China have once again fueled risk aversion, boosting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Markets remain cautious about the newly imposed mutual shipping tariffs by both countries, fearing the standoff could escalate into a new phase of the trade war.
For the Canadian dollar, the situation is further complicated by falling oil prices, which are a key driver of Canada’s economy. Crude remains under pressure due to concerns over weakening global demand amid trade restrictions and rising output from major producers. Declining oil prices are straining the Canadian economy, reducing the attractiveness of the commodity-linked loonie.
As a result, the combination of global uncertainty, lower energy prices, and dollar strength is fueling a steady bullish momentum for the USD/CAD pair. In the short term, the trend will depend on how the trade conflict evolves and how the oil market responds, but for now, the outlook remains firmly upward.

Intraday technical picture:

The 4H USD/CAD chart suggests that the pair retains technical potential for further gains within the 1.4013–1.4108 range.

USDCAD _H4

 

Brent Technical Analysis as of October 14, 2025

Brent crude prices are declining under pressure from uncertainty surrounding US–China trade relations and the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) revision of global market fundamentals.

Possible technical scenarios:

The daily chart shows that Brent continues to move lower from the 63.23 resistance level toward the nearest target of 61.10. If it is overcome, this could open the way for a further decline toward 58.68.

Brent_D1

Fundamental drivers of volatility:

Oil prices are responding to a mix of conflicting signals. Although the US and China are preparing for talks aimed at easing the tariff dispute, new developments, including China’s expanded export restrictions on rare earth metals and Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs starting November 1, are heightening uncertainty. Additional downward pressure is coming from China’s sanctions against US companies and the increase in port fees for maritime shipping.
The IEA’s latest monthly report also weighed on sentiment, as it raised its forecast for global supply growth following OPEC+’s decision to boost production while simultaneously cutting its demand growth outlook due to a weakening economic environment. The narrowing spread between near-term and longer-dated contracts reflects an oversupply in the short term, limiting speculative opportunities in the spot market and adding further pressure on prices.
As a result, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, rising supply, and weakening demand forms a bearish backdrop for Brent crude, increasing the risk of further price declines and higher short-term volatility.

Intraday technical picture:

On the 4H chart, Brent is attempting to overcome Friday’s lows within the 61.10–63.23 range. If this proves to be successful, it could push prices toward the 61.10 support level for a potential test.

Brent_H4

 

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