As it was assumed in the previous overview, depending on the change in geopolitical component and the onset of full-scale invasion in Ukraine, the prices failed to strengthen above the important level at $4,500, and the industrial index quotes updated the lows, then broke out the local support at $4,250.
The prices then dropped to the next target at $4,150. At the moment, we are witnessing the next retest of this support level.
Given the gradual lowering of the highs, the probability of a deeper drawdown and $4,000 psychological level retest increases.
On the intraday H1 chart, we are seeing an impulsive expansion of volatility next to the $4,200 level, which indicates the likelihood of the further price volatility surge.
Further expansion of volatility may lead to a further retest of $4,100-$4,050 local supports and even the immediate resistances at $4,250-$4,300. However, we cannot count on moderate and sustainable growth continuation until the price strengthens above the $4,300 mark and retests this mark from above.
Judging by the technical analysis, the market is currently waiting for bearish speculation and a retest of the psychological level at $4,000.
On the 4-hour chart, the previous candle is closing above the local support at $4,150, which is a sign of a likely slowdown in downward trend. Accordingly, if there are strong volatility surges and subsequent closure of the candlesticks not higher than $4,300, decline may continue during the next trading session.
At the same time, mid-term traders need to pay attention to the fact that the possibility of another corrective price recovery following the retest of $4,000 psychological support will increase if a convergence emerges between last 3-week price lows and RSI oscillator line.