FOREX Technical Analysis as of 29.09.2023


Read in today’s overview:

EUR/USD Technical Analysis as of 29.09.2023

After hitting a ten-month peak just the day before, the US dollar saw its value decline for a second consecutive day. The drop in government bond yields, which had previously bolstered the currency, finally paved the way for a resurgence in the EUR/USD pair.

Possible technical scenarios:

As can be seen on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair has gone up within the 1.0492-1.0592 range and is getting ready to put its resistance to the test. Should 1.0592 remain standing, the price may proceed to decline within the said corridor. However, a breakout of the resistance at 1.0592, followed by consolidation, could pave the way for the pair to target the next level at 1.0707 marked with dotted lines.


Fundamental drivers of volatility:

The euro area inflation rate for the month of September is set to be released at 9:00 a.m. (GMT). The Annual Core Consumer Price Index is expected to drop from 5.3% to 4.8%, while the General CPI is also predicted to fall from 5.2% to 4.5%.
One of the inflation indicators, the US dollar in the pair may react strongly to the release of August personal consumption expenditure data at 12:30 p.m. (GMT).
The Monthly Core PCE is projected to remain at 0.2%, while the Annual Core PCE is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.9%. Projections indicate a 0.5% increase in expenditures of individuals, which is lower than the previous estimate of 0.8%.

Intraday technical picture:

As evidenced by the 4H chart of the EUR/USD pair, the price’s attempt to move higher above the range between 1.0492 and 1.0592 has not been successful up to this point. The pair's direction will become clearer once the price settles in relation to the 1.0592 level.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis as of 29.09.2023

The GBP/USD pair is climbing higher as the US dollar falls in value. With declining yields on US government bonds and mounting concerns about a potential government shutdown ahead of the new fiscal year, the US dollar faces increasing pressure.

Possible technical scenarios:

Judging by the unfolding situation on the daily chart, GBP/USD has rebounded from the downward trend support and is currently in a corrective recovery phase. Prices are still heading towards the upper boundary of the sideways range between 1.2146 and 1.2323, with ample room for upward movement.


Fundamental drivers of volatility:

We anticipate the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure statistics for the month of August at 12:30 p.m. (GMT). Based on estimates, the Annual Core CPI is projected to decrease from 4.2% to 3.9%, while the monthly figure is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Notably, expenditures of individuals are forecasted to rise by 0.5%, a drop compared to the previous increase of 0.8%.

Intraday technical picture:

According to the 4H chart, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading in the middle of the range between 1.2146 and 1.2323, confirming, the technical upside potential towards its upper boundary.


USD/JPY Technical Analysis as of 29.09.2023

The USD/JPY pair experienced a modest decline, stepping back from the area where the Bank of Japan might intervene. Yet, this dip was primarily fueled by the softening of the US dollar.

Possible technical scenarios:

As evidenced by the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair dropped toward the midpoint of the range between 146.93 and 150.21. The mirror level of 148.34 marked with dotted lines may serve as a potential nearby support, while a breakout of this level might lead to further depreciation towards the target at 146.93.


Fundamental drivers of volatility:

The primary driver of today's volatility in the pair will be the release of United States data, revealing the dynamics of personal consumption expenditures for the month of August. This report, scheduled for 12:30 p.m. (GMT), anticipates a decrease in the Annual Core Consumption Expenditure Price Index from 4.2% to 3.9%, with the monthly figure holding steady at 0.2%. Notably, expenditures of individuals, one of the major gauges of inflation, are projected to rise by 0.5%, marking a decline from the earlier growth rate of 0.8%.

Intraday technical picture:

As demonstrated by the 4H chart of the USD/JPY pair, the price's behavior in terms of support at 148.34 marked with dotted lines is currently of critical importance. Should it maintain its position, there's potential for quotes to revisit the last week’s highs.


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