FOREX Technical Analysis as of 27.09.2023


Read in today’s overview:

EUR/USD Technical Analysis as of 27.09.2023

As U.S. government bonds climb and the anticipation of interest rate hikes bolsters the strength of the U.S. dollar, the EUR/USD pair finds itself in a downward spiral.

Possible technical scenarios:

As can be seen on the daily chart of the EUR/USD pair, the price broke out the support at 1.0592, with consolidation below it, indicating the potential for quotes to descend to the 1.0492 level.


Fundamental drivers of volatility:

If the actual readings for Germany's inflation data for the month of September do not match the projection, which is due to be released on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. (GMT), it may have an impact on the volatility of the euro in the pair. The CPI is forecast to rise from 0.3% to 0.4% month-over-month while falling from 6.1% to 4.6% year-over-year.
The much-anticipated release of the United States' second-quarter GDP is just around the corner, scheduled for Thursday at 12:30 GMT. With forecasts now pointing to an annual economic growth rate of 2.2%, up from the previous estimate of 2.0%, all eyes are on the upcoming stats.

Intraday technical picture:

As evidenced by the 4H chart of the EUR/USD pair, the price is steadily declining within the sideways range between 1.0492 and 1.0592. It is approaching the lower boundary of this range, with ample room for further movement.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis as of 27.09.2023

As the US dollar flexes its muscles and the British pound finds its upward potential constrained, the GBP/USD pair continues its descent, sparking keen interest among market players.

Possible technical scenarios:

Examining the daily chart of GBP/USD, we see that the price has touched the support at 1.2146 and is currently putting its strength to the test. Should this level remain standing, the next target for a rebound will be the resistance at 1.2323. If this scenario doesn’t play out, the next target to the downside will be the horizontal level at 1.1934.


Fundamental drivers of volatility:

The anticipation is building as we approach the release of the United States GDP report for the second quarter, set to be unveiled on Thursday at 12:30 p.m. (GMT). A number of 2.2% for annual economic growth has been projected, which is an increase over the prior estimate of 2.0%.
The release of the GDP figures for the second quarter of the United Kingdom on Friday at 6:00 a.m. (GMT) may, in turn, have an effect on the dynamics of the pound. It is anticipated that the pace of economic expansion will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.4% year-over-year, and rise from 0.1% to 0.2% quarter-over-quarter.

Intraday technical picture:

Judging by the unfolding situation on the 4H chart of the GBP/USD pair, we witness a horizontal trend around the 1.2146 level, contributing to a degree of technical uncertainty. This situation doesn't rule out the possibility of further weakening of the pair, especially if it encounters ongoing fundamental pressure from the US dollar.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis as of 27.09.2023

Amidst significant appreciation for the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair continues to be under pressure. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve are moving in opposite directions with their monetary policy decisions at a time when it is likely that the Fed will hike interest rates once more in the United States before the end of the year.

Possible technical scenarios:

As can be seen on the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair has approached the support at 0.6364, the lower green dotted line. From this area, we may witness a potential upward reversal, leading to a consolidation within the sideways range between 0.6364 and 0.6536. Alternatively, there's the possibility of a breakout and consolidation below 0.6364. In the latter scenario, the pair would have a clear path to the south, targeting support at 0.6255.


Fundamental drivers of volatility:

This week's Australian inflation figures showed a small pick-up, yet the Australian dollar hardly budged. The likelihood that Australia's Reserve Bank will delay hiking interest rates for a fourth consecutive time increased from 87% to 92% after the report was released.
On Thursday at 12:30 p.m. (GMT), figures on United States GDP for the second quarter may have some effect on the value of the US dollar. Forecasts for annual economic growth have increased to 2.2% from 2.0%.

Intraday technical picture:

Based on the look of things on the 4H chart, the AUD/USD pair hasn't completely reached the support of the local sideways range between 0.6364 and 0.6450. This situation places the price at a crucial juncture, with the future price movement hinging on whether the pair consolidates above or below the 0.6364 level.


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