Following a pretty turbulent week that sent the US dollar tumbling and propelled gold to historic highs, investors are shifting their focus to new market catalysts. The current five-day stretch will be crucial for establishing medium-term trends. Key events we are expecting include the publication of the vital FOMC minutes, interest rate decisions from global central banks, and fresh data on the labor market and inflation. Volatility is expected to run high.
United States
2:00 p.m.: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June). (Forecast: 54.5; Previous figure: 54.2)
Eurozone
4:00 p.m.: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
United Kingdom
10:30 a.m.: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
United States
12:15 p.m.: ADP Employment Change. (Previous figure: 30.75K)
New Zealand
2:00 a.m.: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision. (Forecast: 2.25%; Previous figure: 2.50%)
United States
2:30 p.m.: EIA Crude Oil Inventories. (Previous figure: -3.775M)
6:00 p.m.: FOMC Meeting Minutes (Minutes of the Federal Reserve System meeting).
United States
12:30 p.m.: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 215K; Previous figure: 218K)
2:00 p.m.: Existing Home Sales (June). (Forecast: 4.17M; Previous figure: 4.20M)
Germany
6:00 a.m.: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (June). (Forecast: -0.3%; Previous figure: -0.3%)
Canada
12:30 p.m.: Unemployment Rate (June). (Forecast: 6.6%; Previous figure: 6.6%)
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Wednesday marks peak volatility for majors and the ‘kiwi.’ New Zealand will announce its rate decision, which could trigger sharp moves in the NZD. Later that evening, the FOMC minutes will be released. Against the backdrop of the recent Non-Farm Payrolls miss, investors will scrutinize every single word from Fed officials to figure out whether US interest rates will be cut faster than the market originally anticipated. Make sure to protect your intraday positions in the dollar, gold, and euro using stop-loss orders or lock in profits before the said releases.
Trade only clear setups and clean charts. This week features three major events on the scene: speeches by Lagarde and Bailey, and the Fed minutes. Remember that around 90% of the analysis surrounding these speeches is simply information noise. Large institutional capital leaves its true footprints not in media headlines, but on the chart in the form of limit levels.
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