Последняя неделя января станет определяющей для краткосрочного тренда доллара и мировых фондовых рынков. В центре внимания — заседание ФРС США, где инвесторы будут искать намеки на дальнейшую траекторию ставок. Дополнительную волатильность внесут выступления Дональда Трампа и Кристин Лагард, а также блок данных по ВВП крупнейших экономик Еврозоны и инфляционные отчеты из Австралии и Японии.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Core Durable Goods Orders (Month-over-Month) (November). Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.2%..
● :30 p.m. GMT: Durable Goods Orders (Month-over-Month) (November). Forecast: 3.1%; Previous: -2.2%. These reports will reflect the level of business investment activity. A considerable increase in headline orders would support the USD early in the trading session.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by US President Donald Trump. Markets remain extremely sensitive to statements from the White House. Any commentary on foreign trade policy or budget stimuli could trigger sharp moves in USD pairs.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (January). Forecast: 90.1; Previous: 89.1. Rising consumer confidence is a leading indicator of inflation and typically supports US equity indices.
Canada:
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Bank of Canada Statement. The regulator will assess current economic conditions ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision, setting the tone for CAD trades.
Eurozone:
● 5:00 p.m. GMT: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Any hints regarding the timing of potential rate cuts could spark heightened volatility in EUR/USD.
Australia:
● 12:30 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (Q4). Previous: 3.2%.
● 12:30 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). Previous: 1.3%. Key inflation data for the AUD. With no official forecast, markets will benchmark against prior readings. Higher-than-expected readings may trigger a rally in the Australian dollar.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by the US President Donald Trump. This continues a sequence of presidential speeches that may fuel intraday volatility during the US session.
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: 3.602M.
● 7:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 3.75%; Previous: 3.75%.
● 7:30 p.m. GMT: FOMC Press Conference. This is the highlight event of the week. While rates are likely to remain unchanged, Powell’s rhetoric will be critical in shaping the dollar’s direction over the coming month.
Canada:
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 2.25%; Previous: 2.25%. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, with focus firmly on the central bank’s guidance regarding future policy steps.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 202K; Previous: 200K. Continued labor market stability would allow the Fed to keep rates elevated for longer.
Japan:
● 11:30 p.m. GMT: Core Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (January). Forecast: 2.2%; Previous: 2.3%. This is a key inflation indicator for the JPY. Slowing inflation would reduce the likelihood of near-term BoJ tightening and could weaken the yen.
Eurozone:
● 6:30 a.m. GMT: French GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.5%.
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: German GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.0%.
● 1:00 p.m. GMT: German CPI (Month-over-Month) (January). Previous: 0.0%. Germany’s weak GDP data would confirm stagnation in the eurozone’s largest economy and pressure the EUR.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Producer Price Index (PPI) (Month-over-Month) (December). Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.2%. Industrial inflation will close out the week, either confirming or challenging the trends the Fed outlined on Wednesday.
● Trump and uncertainty: Presidential speeches on Tuesday and Wednesday may completely ruin technical analysis. Be extra cautious with USD/JPY and EUR/USD during these periods.
● Eurozone Weakness: Friday’s GDP releases from France and Germany may offer opportunities to enter EUR-sell trades if the data meets or undershoots expectations.
● Canadian Dollar: Heightened volatility is expected in CAD pairs on Wednesday. The rate decision, coupled with US oil inventory data, makes USD/CAD one of the most attractive assets during the US session.
We wish you a successful trading week and winning trades ahead!
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