This week, market focus shifts toward central bank rhetoric and assessing the underlying health of major economies. The schedule is packed with speeches from FOMC officials and ECB President Christine Lagarde. What fuels the intrigue is a scheduled address by Donald Trump, which may trigger sharp movements in USD pairs. Traders should brace for heightened volatility mid-week and closely monitor inflation data coming out of Europe and Japan.
United States
1:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks. Christopher Waller is among the most influential voices within the Federal Reserve. His stance on current inflation often dictates the dollar's direction for the entire session. A hawkish tone will likely support the USD.
United States
2:00 p.m. GMT: FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks. Traders will be scouring his speech for hints regarding the timing of the next interest rate move.
3:00 p.m. GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (February). (Forecast: 87.6; Previous: 84.5). Consumer optimism is expected to rise. If the data matches or beats the forecast, it could drive a stronger dollar and a rally in US indices.
Eurozone
5:45 p.m. GMT: ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks. Any comments from Lagarde regarding the resilience of the European economy or future rate plans typically trigger immediate reactions in EUR pairs.
United States
2:00 a.m. GMT: President Donald Trump Speaks. This is a high-uncertainty event. Remarks on trade tariffs or foreign policy could lead to price gaps at the session open and sudden volatility spikes in risk assets.
3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. (Previous: -9.014M). A significant drawdown in inventories could push WTI crude prices higher, indirectly supporting the currencies of oil-exporting countries.
Germany
7:00 a.m. GMT: German GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%). This is a key indicator of stability for the EU's largest economy. Any downward deviation from the forecast will be a bearish signal for the Euro.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (January). (Forecast: 1.7%; Previous: 1.7%). This inflation data will determine how quickly the ECB might move toward policy easing.
Eurozone
8:30 a.m. GMT: ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks. In her second appearance of the week, the market will look to see if the central bank chief maintains her previous stance.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 216K; Previous: 206K). A higher-than-expected number of claims could weigh on the dollar, signaling a cooling labor market.
Japan
11:30 p.m. GMT: Tokyo Core CPI (Year-over-Year) (February). (Forecast: 1.7%; Previous: 2.0%). Inflation is expected to slow. If the figure misses the forecast to the downside, the yen (JPY) may weaken as it reduces the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening its policy.
Switzerland
8:00 a.m. GMT: Swiss GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). (Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: -0.5%). Following a contraction in the previous quarter, a move back into positive territory is needed to support the Franc.
Germany
1:00 p.m. GMT: German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (Feb). (Previous: 0.1%). This is a critical inflation report from Europe’s economic powerhouse before the week closes.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: Producer Price Index (PPI) (Month-over-Month) (January). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.5%). This is a vital indicator of industrial inflation. If the PPI exceeds expectations, it will fuel concerns that consumer inflation (CPI) will remain sticky, prompting USD buying.
Political risk on Wednesday: Trump’s overnight speech scheduled for 2:00 a.m. GMT is a maximum-risk event. Intraday traders should consider closing USD positions on Tuesday evening or significantly reducing trade volumes.
Lagarde in the spotlight: The ECB President will speak twice this week. Keep a close eye on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP as any divergence in rhetoric between Tuesday and Thursday could create excellent opportunities for reversal trades.
Focus on the yen on Thursday: Tokyo data often precedes national figures. Prepare for volatility in USD/JPY late Thursday evening.
The week’s final chord: The combination of German inflation and US PPI on Friday (1:00 p.m.–1:30 p.m. GMT) will define the weekly close.
May your trades remain successful and chart interpretation accurate!
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