The past trading week brought a wave of mixed macroeconomic data, particularly from the U.S. and the Eurozone. These releases stirred volatility and uncertainty in the markets about central banks’ next moves and the broader outlook for global growth.
China:
● Manufacturing PMI (June): Actual figure: 49.7 / Forecast 49.6 / Previous 49.5. The index came in slightly above expectations, but remained under the 50 mark, suggesting continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.
United Kingdom:
● GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q1): Actual figure: 1.3% / Forecast 1.3% / Previous 1.5%. The figure matched forecasts but reflected a slowdown compared to the prior reading.
● GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q1): Actual figure: 0.7% / Forecast 0.7% / Previous 0.1%. Growth aligned with expectations and marked a notable acceleration, which briefly supported the British pound.
Germany:
● Consumer Price Index (Month-over-Month) (June): Actual figure: 0.0% / Forecast 0.2% / Previous 0.1%. A weaker-than-expected reading, potentially softening near-term euro sentiment.
Eurozone:
● Manufacturing PMI (June): Actual figure: 49.5 / Forecast 49.4 / Previous 49.4. Slightly above forecast, but still below 50, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing.
● Consumer Price Index (Year-over-Year) (June): Actual figure: 2.0% / Forecast 2.0% / Previous 1.9%. Inflation remained steady and met expectations.
United States:
● Manufacturing PMI (June): Actual figure: 52.9 / Forecast 52.0 / Previous 52.0.
● ISM Manufacturing PMI (June): Actual figure: 49.0 / Forecast 48.8 / Previous 48.0. Better than forecast, though the reading remained just below the growth threshold.
United States:
● ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (June): Actual figure: -33K / Forecast 99K / Previous 29K. A negative surprise that raised concerns about a possible labor market softening.
● Crude Oil Inventories: Actual figure: +3.845M / Forecast -3.500M / Previous -5.836M. A surprise build in inventories weighed on oil prices midweek.
Japan:
● Services PMI (June): Actual figure: 51.7 / Forecast 51.5 / Previous 51.0.
Eurozone:
● S&P Global Composite PMI (June): Actual figure: 50.6 / Forecast 50.2 / Previous 50.2. Slightly stronger than expected, suggesting improving business activity.
United States:
● Initial Jobless Claims: Actual figure: 233K / Forecast 240K / Previous 237K. Fewer claims than expected highlighted underlying labor market strength.
● Nonfarm Payrolls (June): Actual figure: 147K / Forecast 111K / Previous 144K. A solid beat of expectations, reinforcing employment resilience.
● Unemployment Rate (June): Actual figure: 4.1% / Forecast 4.3% / Previous 4.2%. The drop in the unemployment rate added to the positive labor market narrative.
● Services PMI (June): Actual figure: 52.9 / Forecast 53.1 / Previous 53.1. Slightly below forecast, but still within expansion territory.
Germany:
● Factory Orders (Month-over-Month) (May): Actual figure: -1.4 / Forecast -0.2% / Previous 0.6%.
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