The third week of February was packed with significant events. Key highlights included meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), along with the release of the FOMC minutes. Aside from that, crucial inflation and retail sales data were published in the UK and Canada.
The news flow was relatively light. The US and Canada observed holidays: Americans celebrated President’s Day, while Canadians celebrated Family Day.
Australia:
● At 3:30 a.m. GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its monetary policy decision. As anticipated, the key interest rate was reduced from 4.35% to 4.10%. The RBA also released its Monetary Policy Report.
Great Britain:
● At 7:00 a.m. GMT, the Labor Market Report was published. In January, jobless claims increased by 22,000, following a decline of 15,100 in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.
● At 9:30 a.m. GMT, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a speech.
Germany:
● At 10:00 a.m. GMT, February's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was released, rising to 26.0 from 10.3 in the previous period. This indicated improved business expectations.
Canada:
● At 1:30 p.m. GMT, the January inflation report was published. The consumer price index (CPI) registered a 0.1% increase, recovering from a -0.4% decline in December. The core CPI rose from 1.8% to 2.1% year-over-year, while the month-over-month figure improved from -0.3% to 0.4%.
New Zealand:
● At 1:00 a.m. GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its monetary policy meeting. As expected, the interest rate was cut from 4.25% to 3.75%.
● At 2:00 a.m. GMT, the RBNZ held a press conference, where officials discussed economic forecasts and future monetary policy plans.
Great Britain:
● At 7:00 a.m. GMT, inflation data was released. The consumer price index for January increased from 2.5% to 3.0% year-over-year, while the month-over-month figure declined from 0.3% to -0.1%.
United States:
● At 7:00 p.m. GMT, the FOMC meeting minutes were published, shedding light on the Federal Reserve’s stance on future monetary policy measures.
United States:
● At 1:30 p.m. GMT, the weekly report on initial jobless claims showed an increase to 219,000 from the previous 214,000.
● At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was released, registering 18.1 compared to 44.3 in the prior period, signaling a slowdown in production growth.
● At 5:00 p.m. GMT, the US Department of Energy (EIA) released crude oil inventory data, showing an increase of 4.633 million barrels, up from the previous rise of 4.070 million barrels.
Great Britain:
● At 7:00 a.m. GMT, the January retail sales report is set for release. Monthly retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4%, following a 0.3% decline in the prior month, while annual growth is forecast to slow to 0.6% from 3.6%.
Germany:
● At 8:30 a.m. GMT, February’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released. The Services PMI is forecast to decline slightly to 52.4 from 52.5, while the Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 45.4 from 45.0.
Eurozone:
● At 9:00 a.m. GMT, the Eurozone PMI data will be published. The Services PMI is projected to rise to 51.5 from 51.3, while the Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 46.9 from 46.6.
Canada:
● At 1:30 p.m. GMT, the December retail sales report will be released. Core retail sales are forecast to increase by 1.7% month-over-month, rebounding from a previous decline of -0.7%. Total sales are expected to grow by 1.8%, following no change in the prior month.
United States:
● At 2:45 p.m. GMT, the February manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain steady at 51.2, while the Services PMI is expected to rise to 53.2 from 52.9.
● At 3:00 p.m. GMT, the January existing home sales report is due, with sales projected to decline to 4.13 million from 4.24 million in December.
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