Today, global markets are reeling from news that just a few years ago seemed like a script for a Hollywood apocalyptic blockbuster. However, in May 2026, this became a reality. The Chairman and CEO of one of the world's largest oil companies, Chevron, Mike Wirth, addressed the Milken Institute forum with a dire warning: humanity is entering a phase of not just "expensive oil," but its physical shortage.
The number one reason was the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategically vital waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil production passes. The conflict between the US and Iran has moved into a stage where diplomacy is powerless and military threats have become commonplace.
Mike Wirth draws a fundamentally important line between two types of crises:
Price Shock
Businesses and citizens pay more, but fuel is available at gas stations. It is difficult, but the economy keeps moving.
Physical Shortage
The oil simply isn't there, regardless of how much you are willing to pay for it.
Today, the market has moved exactly into this second type. Until now, the physical flow of oil was sustained by three "buffers":
1. Commercial inventories of companies;
2. Shadow fleets(tankers bypassing sanctions);
3. Strategic state reserves.
Chevron's warning is that all three buffers are being exhausted simultaneously. According to Goldman Sachs, global oil inventories are approaching their lowest level in the last 8 years, and the rate of their depletion has become critical.
The first region to feel the blow was Asia. Japan, which imports about 95% of its oil from the Middle East, found itself in a desperate search for alternatives. It reached a point where Tokyo, for the first time in two years, accepted a shipment of oil from Russia's Sakhalin, despite sanctions and territorial disputes. Next in line is Europe. The US, being a net exporter of oil, is protected somewhat better, but as Galasyuk notes, no economy has immunity in a globalized world. The first "victims" have already appeared in the aviation sector. On May 3, 2026, Spirit Airlines announced bankruptcy. The direct cause was not management, but a sharp rise in the price of aviation fuel, which made flights unprofitable.
The fuel crisis is instantly spreading to other sectors:
Agriculture
Rising diesel costs for machinery lead to higher food prices.
Shipping and Logistics
Freight becomes "golden," driving up inflation for consumer goods.
Industry
High energy costs "suffocate" production.
Central banks find themselves facing an impossible choice: raise rates to fight inflation (and definitively kill economic growth), or stimulate the economy (and allow prices to skyrocket).
US attempts to conduct Operation Project Freedom to escort civilian vessels through the strait with Navy forces have so far yielded only temporary results. Even if the strait is opened tomorrow, restoring buffer stocks will take months, if not years.
The world has entered a zone of turbulence where oil is no longer just a commodity, but a geopolitical weapon and a scarce resource. Preparing for new economic realities is necessary today.
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